Thursday, November 4, 2010

Update: Cassidy's Lead Shrinks To 27 Votes

The Alameda County Registrar of Voters late Thursday afternoon posted updated election results. Stephen Cassidy's lead has dropped to just 27 votes over San Leandro Mayor Tony Santos. At the closing of precincts early Wednesday morning. Cassidy had led by 66 votes over the incumbent. Because of the first-time use of Ranked Choice Voting in the city, the crucial second-place votes from the three also-rans will likely determine the winner as early as tomorrow. Here are the updated results:

RCV-1st Round Results......Votes   Pct%
Stephen Cassidy.............5322 35.46%
Tony Santos.................5295 35.28%
Joyce Starosciak............3576 23.82%
Sara Mestas..................572  3.81% 
John Palau...................244  1.63%

UPDATE - Nov. 4, 8:00 p.m.: Registrar says final results could be released next Tuesday.


  1. Looks like Sara will determine the election after all. Lou will not make much of a contribution at all and John will start the ball rolling for a Santos victory.

  2. Joyce's transfers will determine the election. Are most of her voters "change" voters or are they pro-z, she's the better insider voters? Remember Cassidy spent a year passing out flyers trashing both Tony and Joyce for defecit spending. Not likely to endear him to Joyce supporters.


  3. Charlie, you are right of course. The magic number for Cassidy is 2,184 more votes and for Santos, 2,211. Assuming that Lou ignored the instructions for his single vote for himself, we can deduce that Palau supporters swung their second support to Cassidy and to Storosciak and that a simple majority of Stororsciak supporters selected Cassidy. That would suggest that he will win. However, if most folks ignored the instructions except for those that took the recommendations into the ballot booth, then Santos has a clear opportunity to swing the election. The algorithmn is pretty simple. Cassidy will win if everyone followed the instructions. If very few did, then Tony will win.

  4. Mestas votes will likely go to Santos as will Palau. If Measure Z passed so easily, should we assume those voters neglected Cassidy because he did not support the measure?

    Anybody guess is as good as yours

  5. Cassidy has about the same number of votes as Dave Anderson. Santos and Joyce total is close to Gregorys.

    If Santos and Joyce represent status quo than Joyce votes break to Santos and he wins.

    All Joyce running did was destroy her political future and maybe hurt her mentor Hayashi as well for backing a loser

  6. But what if Santos voters went for Cassidy the second time around? DUH!

  7. Santos second place votes will stay with him since he is one of the top two candidates, duh

  8. I wish Prop 19 passed so I could legally understand all this.

  9. Nick, weed would not have helped you at all. Chlamydia is what you need. Mel

  10. Did Cassidy win? http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/rcvresults_3192.htm

  11. Anon, it will be hard to tell for sure, but it looks like it on this end. Mel