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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Bonta, Guillen To Meet In November Leaving Young On The Outside Looking In

ELECTION '12//ASSEMBLY 18 PRIMARY
June 6, 2012 | First-term Alameda Vice Mayor Rob Bonta won the California primary in the 18th Assembly District Tuesday night in relatively easy fashion. Bonta bested Peralta Community College trustee Abel Guillen by nine points. The two will face off once again in the November general election.

In what was once predicted months ago to be a close three-person race between Bonta, Guillen and Joel Young, turned into a smooth road to victory for Bonta, who came away with 37 percent of vote, followed by Guillen at 28 percent and Young with a dismal 19 percent.

For Young, the results were a damning reminder of the damage he wrought on his own campaign starting with the domestic violence allegations in March 2011. To make matters worse, he narrowly beat Republican Rhonda Weber by percentage points. Weber did not campaign and never appeared at any candidates forums in the past year.

Clearly over $100,000 in special interest money used on highly negative mailers against Young were effective in reminding and introducing voter to his large menu of recent indiscretions.

Going forward, the Bonta/Guillen race will solely be about winning over voters in Oakland. Guillen may have a slight advantage, but he will also have to attempt shaving a few percentage points off of Bonta's totals in San Leandro and even Alameda. As opponents of Alameda failed sales tax measure showed Tuesday night, there is a contingent of Alamedans who don't like Bonta that could be plucked away by Guillen. And, how will the forces that torpedoed Young's campaign, presumably on behalf of Guillen, turn their guns on Bonta and vice-versa. This race may not only be Bonta vs. Guillen, but Bonta's public safety unions against Guillen's nurses and teachers.

18th District...............VOTES....PCT
PRECINCTS REPORTING 100%
Rob Bonta...................15245..36.84%
Abel Guillen................11562..27.94%
Joel Young...................7819..18.90%
Rhonda Weber.................6551..15.83%

6 comments :

Guillen will have a very, very, very, hard time in November. Expect a big victory by Bonta. Many leaders in Oakland already are jumping to Bonta. Specially the folks that Young was holding will do that with a passion.

you forgot to use your hashtag ... #soreloser

You expect the folks in Alameda who opposed Measure C to instead favor Abel-- who's even further to the left and quick to tax?

It's a crazy, crazy world. I listen to these anti-Alameda Fire people and opponents of Measure C all the time here in Alameda. They don't like anything associated to that group. Even if Bonta doesn't even have his hands dirty.

BUT HE WAS AT THAT PARTY WHERE GILMORE AND TAM WERE HOBNOBBING WITH THE FIREFIGHTERS UNION ON ELECTION NIGHT 2010.

THEY HAVE THE PICTURES TO PROVE IT!

Personal relationships play an extremely large role in politics.

And Alameda is a small town. all the mover and shakers know each other. Will those who can't stand Alameda Fire & Bonta sit out the November election? or will they vote for Guillen just to spite Bonta?

By MW:

If this election had taken place without: one, the recent disclosures coming out concerning Joel Young; and two, Young over the last few months regularly shooting himself in the foot almost every time he opened his mouth -

Young probably would have finished in first place, and quite likely even by a wide margin. However Young, and just like a lot of lawyers, does not seem to be good for much besides shooting himself in the foot.

In fact Young seems so extremely "talented" at shooting himself in the foot and making a fool of himself, that therefore if I needed a lawyer, I would not let Young represent me even if he agreed to work for free.

Of course if I was in a big jam and therefore needed a brilliant lawyer to represent me, I could always hire Nadia Lockyer, since on a one to ten intelligence scale and with one the lowest possible number, I doubt Nadia could even rate a zero.

Frankly I am starting to think if a person is far too stupid to even be eligible for placement in a home for the severely mentally retarded, that then instead they enroll the person in law school and after three years of law school the California State Bar then issues the joker a law license.

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