Thursday, June 28, 2012

Internal Poll Shows Bonta Building Upon His Primary Victory

ELECTION '12//ASSEMBLY 18 | Creating an air of inevitability in the weeks after a clear primary win is pretty standard. But, as dozens of campaigns for the California Legislature re-gather for the fall general election, few are trying to add momentum to their primary victory quite like Alameda Vice Mayor Rob Bonta in the 18th Assembly District.
Bonta, who sprinted to an eight point victory in the June primary over Abel Guillen, took the unusual step of releasing the results of a post-election poll. As you might guess, the numbers were quite favorable to Bonta and included the pollster's generous conclusion: "This is a race that Bonta should win."

According to the poll paid for by Bonta's campaign, his lead has swelled to 16 points. An unaided initial question gave Bonta a 43-27 lead over Guillen with 29 percent undecided.

The telephone survey of 404 voters administered by the firm, Goodwin Simon Strategic Research, from June 23-25, included people who listed both a landline and cellphone number on their voter registration form and includes a margin of error of +/-5 percent.

More tellingly, the breakdown of the results are even more decisive and potentially dire for Guillen. Voters in Oakland and Latinos overall are believed to be Guillen's strongest voting bloc. According to the poll, Bonta has an 18-point lead in Oakland and an 16-point advantage among Latinos. The lop-sided results may have been the impetus for Bonta quickly making the results public.

Bonta also has a 13-point advantage with people who voted for Rhonda Weber, the sole Republican in the primary race and a 24-point lead among supporters of Joel Young, who finished a distant third. The interest in Bonta from voters of Young is not at all surprising since a flood of highly negative mailers trashed the embattled AC Transit board memeber in the final weeks of the campaign. Although, the mailers did not come directly from Guillen's campaign, the large push against Young came from a special interest group partly funded by labor groups who previously endorsed his campaign.

A second question where voters were read a relatively fair description of both candidates showed Bonta's lead increased even further. In a head-to-head matchup, Bonta leads 50-28 with 22 percent undecided.

The numbers come with a grain of salt. The survey was paid for by the candidate and would have been kept under wraps if it were any less favorable to Bonta. Hayward Councilman Bill Quirk used a similar gambit in the weeks leading to the primary in the 20th Assembly District by making an internal poll public. That poll also showed him with a comfortable lead, although the final vote detailed a much tighter race.

Nonetheless, political campaigns are all about perception and it's much easier to build earlier momentum when voters think you're the candidate on top rather the one on the bottom. This poll shows a steep, uphill climb for Guillen and it doesn't look good for his chances. That's why it was commissioned and it's why it was released.


  1. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Poll is released to help raise money from special interest groups in Sacramento. Who will own Bonta?

  2. The thing is that Abel Guillen is already owned by mane, many other special interest groups. There is no secret that Guillen is not his own man. Or women. All depends on what side of the bed he woke up. Which of his two spirits he will channel.

  3. that plus/minus is kinda high. Usually 4 is the accepted norm.

    It's a long way from November! Guillen did well in Oakland and in San Leandro.

  4. Interesting this firm is using the working with the prez administration. Another blog did a fact check on Bonta's claim and found it misleading. The City Manager John Russo should be credited with the heavy lifting. Not Bonta.

  5. Yes, take it with a grain of salt. To me, the most important thing is how many people who voted for Young are now saying they support Bonta. You can't be sure all those mailers against Young didn't anger people in Oakland.

  6. Issues and supporters aside, Bonta has a huge advantage.
    Physical appearance, family appearance, etc.
    Everything else equal, and Bonta takes it on that alone.

    Superficial? Sure, but take a look at all those mailers everyone sends out. Superficial to the max.

    Bonta, good looking, fit and trim. Former college athlete, long time married with children.
    Passes for a wide variety of ethnic appeal, Asian and non Asian.
    Good hair, nice teeth.

    That package is easily worth 5% of the vote.
    They won't be able to trash Bonta like they did to Young.

  7. The margin of error of 5 percent is ONLY for the first, head-to-head full sample of voters.

    All of these "leads" that Rob's consultants are claiming, amongst Latinos, Oaklanders, or Young voters, are (by definition) within MUCH SMALLER sub-samples. Margin of error could be triple or more, meaning these "leads" are all but meaningless.

  8. Bonta beat Guillen by a pretty significant margin (over 10 points) in San Leandro and it was basically a dead-heat between the two in Oakland. Bonta also won in East Oakland, while Guillen finished in third place there. I can see Bonta having a sizable lead especially since Guillen hasn't established himself as the favored candidate in Oakland.

  9. Dead heat .. Guillen won 60% of Oakland. I wouldn't call that a dead heat

  10. I don't know where you're getting the stat that Guillen won 60% of Oakland.

    Abel received 12424 votes in Oakland, accounting for 35% of the Oakland vote. Bonta got 11731 votes in Oakland, amounting to 33.1%.

    That's a difference of 693 votes, or less than a 2% difference. Check your sources and do your math.

  11. This local news resources is usually great at sniffing out stories - how about looking into the Suncal slate that were elected to Alameda city council less than two years ago now?

    How about looking into the court hearing this very morning on the Alameda Point lawsuit against the city?

    How about asking Bonta what negative messaging (on himself) he tested, and where he stood against Guillen after that?

  12. Deanna Duggens- Please organize your points into items 1 through 5.
    Make each item clear and distinct, so that a normal person can make sense of each item without having all your background knowledge.

    Do that, and perhaps others out here will see if you have any real points or are just throwing confetti up into the air.

  13. The comments above regarding Rob Bonta's children are false, misleading and offensive. It is the policy of the Bonta campaign to not comment on the content of blogs posted by individuals whose only intent is obviously to incite. However, such unfounded attacks or insinuations against a candidate's wife and children are inappropriate, unwarranted and have absolutely no place in this campaign, or any other. Readers with genuine questions or concerns that will help in their decisions on which candidate to support can simply email or call the Bonta campaign. Thank you.

  14. Whatchutalking bout Willis? I don't see anything about Bonta's family