1:10am- Now let's spend the next few days figuring this all out. Shall we?
Goodnight and, as always, thank you for reading the East Bay Citizen. If we stick together, we'll soon rid the East Bay of this rot. We've already got the bad guys running!
12:30am- The final totals are in! Here's the lineup for the November general election: The following races will all feature Democrats running against each other.
CD15-Pete Stark vs Eric Swalwell. AD18-Rob Bonta vs Abel Guillen. AD20-Bill Quirk vs Jennifer Ong. AD25-Bob Wieckowski vs Arlyne Diamond.
In the Alameda County Superior Court judge race, Tara Flanagan vs Andrew Weiner. Flanagan fell short by a percent of gaining the 50 percent needed to win the race outright. In the Alameda County Supervisor District 4 race, Nate Miley easily won re-election over Tojo Thomas.
In Hayward, Council members Barbara Halliday and Francisco Zermeno won re-election. The City Council will also welcome two new members, Al Mendall and former City Manager Greg Jones. Councilman Olden Henson, though, missed out on re-election to the council for a fifth term. It ends Henson's 18 years on the council after being appointed to the seat in 1994. It's a sad ending for one of the East Bay's genuinely nice public officials. Definitely one of the good guys in my book.
11:35pm- East Bay voters seem friendly to tax measures, except in Alameda. Hayward's school parcel tax looks on the way to passing the 2/3rds threshold at 70 percent. No matter your stance on taxes, something must be done with Hayward's dismal school district. The Heart of the Bay will not improve without fixing its schools. Peralta Community College District voters are also backing Measure B with 70 percent. Voters in Alameda are not buying City Manager John Russo's gambit to parlay a sales tax measure into a bond possibly yielding $15 million to various infrastructure projects. Russo is going to have to explain why the measure was beaten so soundly. It's teetering on dipping under 50 percent. People will vote to raise taxes if it is needed to balance the budget, not for what appeared to be a spending spree on auxiliary projects.
11:15pm- Over in the Alameda County Superior Court race, Tara Flanagan is moving ever so closer to the 50 percent threshold. This race is non-partisan and not subject to the top two primary system. Flanagan sits at 47.53 percent, but she's took a big jump in the latest results. If she does not reach 50 percent, she will certainly face Andrew Weiner in the November runoff.
10:40pm- Rob Bonta looks like the winner in AD18. At a San Leandro candidates forum Bonta told me he believed his campaign was leading in all three district cities--Oakland, Alameda and San Leandro. He may have been correct, but I'm going to be interested in seeing how well he did in Oakland. The city is still the key to victory and he looks like he's facing a November opponent quite popular in Oakland, especially with younger voters.
I was asked who is the biggest disappointment so far tonight. Aside from Young, who we expected would finish third, he flirtation with finishing last to someone absent from the race is pretty big. But, for me, I'm surprised with Hayward CM Olden Henson placing fifth right now. I'm also a bit surprised with the strong performance from Al Mendall in the same race. I could never get a good feel about how he was doing.
10:30pm- I'm looking at these CD15 results and wondering where Chris Pareja's 20 percent would split in November. Those people do not like Stark. As I've reported before, the rowdy anti-Stark people are not Swalwell followers, but Pareja's ugly stepsisters, the Tea Party.
10:25pm- Check that. Greg Jones has just inched into second place in Hayward's City Council race. The four open spots now line up like this: Halliday, Jones, Mendall, Zermeno.
10:20pm- Like the previous updates, there is very little movement in these results. In fact, no a single candidate in any of these races has even changed positions. Bonta and Guillen in AD18 look safe for the runoff as does Quirk and Ong in AD20. The only remaining storylines to watch is how close can Eric Swalwell get to Pete Stark and can Hayward CM Olden Henson close in on fourth. Henson is now exactly 100 votes fourth place CM Francisco Zermeno with 50 percent of precincts reporting.
9:50pm- In the meantime, let's go down south to AD25. Bob Wieckowski is looking good with 58.98 percent. Arlyne Diamond is a long second at 26.63, but she's looking good for the runoff. Primo McHugh, the best name of any candidate, is languishing at 13.96 percent. I have not followed this race, but thought the former county supervisor would do better. Wieckowski, on the other hand, is probably destined for the state senate soon, so we'll keep an eye on him.
9:45pm- Dave Macdonald at the Alameda County registrars office must be on break. No results for over an hour.
9:35pm- Proponents of Alameda's Measure C are already wondering what could have been. Absentee ballots show the sales tax measure flailing at 51 percent. That's a long way from two-thirds. Looks like its back to drawing board for City Manager John Russo.
9:15pm- The results in AD18 are as expected. Bonta leads with 37 percent, followed by Abel Guillen at 26 percent. The story here is Joel Young's free fall. He holds third with just 18.92 percent, but only leads the Republican Rhonda Weber (16.51 percent) by a few percent. That's the Rhonda Weber who did no actual campaigning! I wouldn't know her if she was sitting next to me here at the Blue Danube on Park Street! Embarrassing night for Young.
9:00pm- There's a humdinger in Hayward. With nearly half the precincts reporting, CM Olden Henson is at risk of losing re-election. The wrath of business interests who stomped away in anger two weeks ago over his Walmart vowing to defeat him may come true. Henson is fifth--1/2 percent behind CM Francisco Zermeno for fourth. CM Barbara Halliday leads with 19 percent, followed by Al Mendall and Greg Jones. The spread between first and fifth is less than 5 percent.
8:40pm- AD20: Potted plants and oven mitts work! Look at Jennifer Ong in second just 4 percentage points behind Quirk. He enthusiasm and deep pockets down the stretch is really paying off. Quirk has got to be nervous. Mark Green is sitting there too at 21 percent, within striking distance and frankly better than I expected. Luis Reynoso apparently drummed up the typical 15 percent of Republicans and nothing more.
8:30pm-Election results from absentee ballots are up. Let's break it down: CD15: Rep. Stark needs to do better than 44 percent, that's is certain. I would imagine most of those absentee ballots were people angry at his antics, but it's a good foothold for him to avoid actually "losing" this primary. Nice numbers for Chris Pareja at almostt 20 percent. That's not all Tea Party adherents, that's people who are pissed at Stark and would never vote for a Democrat, no matter how moderate (i.e. Swalwell.)
8:16pm- Mark Ibanez from KTVU just dropped into election headquarters here at Blue Danube in Alameda. I'm here with Alameda greats Jack Boeger and Michelle Elson from TheAlamedan.org.
8:15pm- Stark leads in CD15, but with just over 44 percent. Swalwell second, Pareja pushing 20 percent.
Bonta leads in #AD18, Guillen, Young. Quirk leads in #AD20 with Ong second and trailing by just 4 percent!
8:00pm- Nicholas Terry, noted raconteur, former EastBayCitizen podcast co-host and one-time challenger to Mary Hayashi, tells The Citizen, Pete Stark will lose tonight and is betting a steak dinner on it.
7:45pm- I spoke to Alameda County supervisor candidate for District 4, Tojo Thomas, today. He told me, as a boy growing up in Kerala, India, he never imagined ever seeing his name of a ballot in the United States. Thomas is up against Supervisor Nate Miley tonight. It wasn't a good day for Miley, for sure. he angered Palestinian at today's board meeting and not to mention South Asians last week with his aide's disconceting comments about cricket and Silicon Valley tech barons.
7:30pm- Welcome to Election Night in the East Bay! The polls close in 30 minutes. I voted for the first time today as an Alamedan. I can tell you I've never walked to the polls from home before. Ah, island living!
Here are some of the things to watch as the polls come after 8pm. Since covering my first election in June 2010, I've noticed one telling fact. The first place candidate in the initial posting of absentee results is, except for one ocassion, has been the eventually winner. The only case is actually half true. In the San Leandro mayoral race in November 2010, Stephen Cassidy had an early lead over Mayor Tony Santos. As the night dragged on, Santos eventually overtook Cassidy in the first round. However, because of ranked-choice voting, Cassidy won the election.
Tonight we may see the same phenomenom--but only for first place. With the top two primary system, the battle for second could be topsy-turvy.
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
1:10am- Now let's spend the next few days figuring this all out. Shall we?