EAST BAY CITIZEN. EVERYWHERE SINCE 2009

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

LIVEBLOGGING ELECTION NIGHT IN THE EAST BAY

1:10am- Now let's spend the next few days figuring this all out. Shall we?

Goodnight and, as always, thank you for reading the East Bay Citizen. If we stick together, we'll soon rid the East Bay of this rot. We've already got the bad guys running!

12:30am- The final totals are in! Here's the lineup for the November general election: The following races will all feature Democrats running against each other.

CD15-Pete Stark vs Eric Swalwell. AD18-Rob Bonta vs Abel Guillen. AD20-Bill Quirk vs Jennifer Ong. AD25-Bob Wieckowski vs Arlyne Diamond.

In the Alameda County Superior Court judge race, Tara Flanagan vs Andrew Weiner. Flanagan fell short by a percent of gaining the 50 percent needed to win the race outright. In the Alameda County Supervisor District 4 race, Nate Miley easily won re-election over Tojo Thomas.

In Hayward, Council members Barbara Halliday and Francisco Zermeno won re-election. The City Council will also welcome two new members, Al Mendall and former City Manager Greg Jones. Councilman Olden Henson, though, missed out on re-election to the council for a fifth term. It ends Henson's 18 years on the council after being appointed to the seat in 1994. It's a sad ending for one of the East Bay's genuinely nice public officials. Definitely one of the good guys in my book.

11:35pm- East Bay voters seem friendly to tax measures, except in Alameda. Hayward's school parcel tax looks on the way to passing the 2/3rds threshold at 70 percent. No matter your stance on taxes, something must be done with Hayward's dismal school district. The Heart of the Bay will not improve without fixing its schools. Peralta Community College District voters are also backing Measure B with 70 percent. Voters in Alameda are not buying City Manager John Russo's gambit to parlay a sales tax measure into a bond possibly yielding $15 million to various infrastructure projects. Russo is going to have to explain why the measure was beaten so soundly. It's teetering on dipping under 50 percent. People will vote to raise taxes if it is needed to balance the budget, not for what appeared to be a spending spree on auxiliary projects.

11:15pm- Over in the Alameda County Superior Court race, Tara Flanagan is moving ever so closer to the 50 percent threshold. This race is non-partisan and not subject to the top two primary system. Flanagan sits at 47.53 percent, but she's took a big jump in the latest results. If she does not reach 50 percent, she will certainly face Andrew Weiner in the November runoff.

10:40pm- Rob Bonta looks like the winner in AD18. At a San Leandro candidates forum Bonta told me he believed his campaign was leading in all three district cities--Oakland, Alameda and San Leandro. He may have been correct, but I'm going to be interested in seeing how well he did in Oakland. The city is still the key to victory and he looks like he's facing a November opponent quite popular in Oakland, especially with younger voters.

I was asked who is the biggest disappointment so far tonight. Aside from Young, who we expected would finish third, he flirtation with finishing last to someone absent from the race is pretty big. But, for me, I'm surprised with Hayward CM Olden Henson placing fifth right now. I'm also a bit surprised with the strong performance from Al Mendall in the same race. I could never get a good feel about how he was doing.

10:30pm- I'm looking at these CD15 results and wondering where Chris Pareja's 20 percent would split in November. Those people do not like Stark. As I've reported before, the rowdy anti-Stark people are not Swalwell followers, but Pareja's ugly stepsisters, the Tea Party.

10:25pm- Check that. Greg Jones has just inched into second place in Hayward's City Council race. The four open spots now line up like this: Halliday, Jones, Mendall, Zermeno.

10:20pm- Like the previous updates, there is very little movement in these results. In fact, no a single candidate in any of these races has even changed positions. Bonta and Guillen in AD18 look safe for the runoff as does Quirk and Ong in AD20. The only remaining storylines to watch is how close can Eric Swalwell get to Pete Stark and can Hayward CM Olden Henson close in on fourth. Henson is now exactly 100 votes fourth place CM Francisco Zermeno with 50 percent of precincts reporting.

9:50pm- In the meantime, let's go down south to AD25. Bob Wieckowski is looking good with 58.98 percent. Arlyne Diamond is a long second at 26.63, but she's looking good for the runoff. Primo McHugh, the best name of any candidate, is languishing at 13.96 percent. I have not followed this race, but thought the former county supervisor would do better. Wieckowski, on the other hand, is probably destined for the state senate soon, so we'll keep an eye on him.

9:45pm- Dave Macdonald at the Alameda County registrars office must be on break. No results for over an hour.

9:35pm- Proponents of Alameda's Measure C are already wondering what could have been. Absentee ballots show the sales tax measure flailing at 51 percent. That's a long way from two-thirds. Looks like its back to drawing board for City Manager John Russo.

9:15pm- The results in AD18 are as expected. Bonta leads with 37 percent, followed by Abel Guillen at 26 percent. The story here is Joel Young's free fall. He holds third with just 18.92 percent, but only leads the Republican Rhonda Weber (16.51 percent) by a few percent. That's the Rhonda Weber who did no actual campaigning! I wouldn't know her if she was sitting next to me here at the Blue Danube on Park Street! Embarrassing night for Young.

9:00pm- There's a humdinger in Hayward. With nearly half the precincts reporting, CM Olden Henson is at risk of losing re-election. The wrath of business interests who stomped away in anger two weeks ago over his Walmart vowing to defeat him may come true. Henson is fifth--1/2 percent behind CM Francisco Zermeno for fourth. CM Barbara Halliday leads with 19 percent, followed by Al Mendall and Greg Jones. The spread between first and fifth is less than 5 percent.

8:40pm- AD20: Potted plants and oven mitts work! Look at Jennifer Ong in second just 4 percentage points behind Quirk. He enthusiasm and deep pockets down the stretch is really paying off. Quirk has got to be nervous. Mark Green is sitting there too at 21 percent, within striking distance and frankly better than I expected. Luis Reynoso apparently drummed up the typical 15 percent of Republicans and nothing more.

8:30pm-Election results from absentee ballots are up. Let's break it down: CD15: Rep. Stark needs to do better than 44 percent, that's is certain. I would imagine most of those absentee ballots were people angry at his antics, but it's a good foothold for him to avoid actually "losing" this primary. Nice numbers for Chris Pareja at almostt 20 percent. That's not all Tea Party adherents, that's people who are pissed at Stark and would never vote for a Democrat, no matter how moderate (i.e. Swalwell.)

8:16pm- Mark Ibanez from KTVU just dropped into election headquarters here at Blue Danube in Alameda. I'm here with Alameda greats Jack Boeger and Michelle Elson from TheAlamedan.org.

8:15pm- Stark leads in CD15, but with just over 44 percent. Swalwell second, Pareja pushing 20 percent.

Bonta leads in #AD18, Guillen, Young. Quirk leads in #AD20 with Ong second and trailing by just 4 percent!

8:00pm- Nicholas Terry, noted raconteur, former EastBayCitizen podcast co-host and one-time challenger to Mary Hayashi, tells The Citizen, Pete Stark will lose tonight and is betting a steak dinner on it.

7:45pm- I spoke to Alameda County supervisor candidate for District 4, Tojo Thomas, today. He told me, as a boy growing up in Kerala, India, he never imagined ever seeing his name of a ballot in the United States. Thomas is up against Supervisor Nate Miley tonight. It wasn't a good day for Miley, for sure. he angered Palestinian at today's board meeting and not to mention South Asians last week with his aide's disconceting comments about cricket and Silicon Valley tech barons.


7:30pm- Welcome to Election Night in the East Bay! The polls close in 30 minutes. I voted for the first time today as an Alamedan. I can tell you I've never walked to the polls from home before. Ah, island living!

Here are some of the things to watch as the polls come after 8pm. Since covering my first election in June 2010, I've noticed one telling fact. The first place candidate in the initial posting of absentee results is, except for one ocassion, has been the eventually winner. The only case is actually half true. In the San Leandro mayoral race in November 2010, Stephen Cassidy had an early lead over Mayor Tony Santos. As the night dragged on, Santos eventually overtook Cassidy in the first round. However, because of ranked-choice voting, Cassidy won the election.

Tonight we may see the same phenomenom--but only for first place. With the top two primary system, the battle for second could be topsy-turvy.

18 comments :

Stark -Swalwell- Pareja

Stark 14854 44.72%
Swalwell 11690 35.19%
Pareja 6552 19.72%

Interesting. Alameda Co only.
I wonder if the East County mails in more or fewer ballots as a percent of their turnout.
Or the make up of older vs younger voters in those ballots. I would think older.

From CD15 in Contra Costa Co with ONLY 2 of 38 precincts reporting

ERIC SWALWELL (Party Preference: DEM) 38.26% 2,226
FORTNEY PETE STARK (Party Preference: DEM) 34.81% 2,025
CHRISTOPHER 'CHRIS' J. PAREJA (Party Preference: NPP) 26.54% 1,544

WRITE-IN 0.40% 23
5,818

Bonta at 37.5% with ...while Alameda sits at ZERO precincts reported ...

He may make that 40% when Alameda comes in

Unless Alamedans vote by mail at high rates

Well, if potted plants and oven mitts work, this is probably what impresses my provincial, small-minded fellow voters.

I am disappointed that solid candidates like Reynoso do not get proper recognition by voters. It seems like everyone wants to vote for the big pockets or latest kitchen accessory, grab their Starbucks, and climb back into the SUV.

A real shame...

Correct, Bonta's votes and the other early votes were all mail-in so we need to see more.

Big vote with national implications is Measure B in San Jose, the pension modification measure

Yes 47,000 No 19,000 all mail-in, but with that lead it will pass. (then head to court)

36 of 38 Contra Costa precincts in

ERIC SWALWELL (Party Preference: DEM) 40.13% 3,415
FORTNEY PETE STARK (Party Preference: DEM) 33.09% 2,816
CHRISTOPHER 'CHRIS' J. PAREJA (Party Preference: NPP) 26.40% 2,246
WRITE-IN 0.38% 32
==============================================
Add those to Alameda County with 88.6% counted.

Combined results

Pete Stark, 42.63%

Eric Swalwell 35.21%

Chris Pareja 21.76%

Write in 0.3%

Looks like the November race will be decided by Republicans and declines-to-state...
Pete may regret his "attitude" over the past 20 years.
Oh my, much closer than I imagined.
Ro must be shocked.

100% Alameda County in...

36 of 38 Contra Costa precincts in...

Combined totals percents

Stark 41.6% (yikes!)

Swalwell 35.8%

Pareja 22.1%

Write in .4%

Those final two precincts will only make a tiny adjustment, and not in Stark's favor.

5 months is a long time, but Pete Stark faces possible defeat.
Can he, in the November election, create a much higher turnout in those areas and with those people who favor his brand of "Democrat"?

If Pete takes 33.33% of the Republicans and write-ins, he will still only have 49.97% of the vote.
Will 1 in 3 Republicans vote for the "Pete Stark" brand?

Because, without that portion, his only chance is to capture a higher percentage of a larger Democratic turn-out. Big get out the vote by unions, and "more progressive" types.

Everyone in the campaign will be in new roles.
Swalwell, Stark, Ro, Republicans, ....
Any defections and Pete is in trouble.
Any more blunders and Pete is in trouble.
Can Pete face the public without looking worse for the exposure?
Can he win without facing real forums and League of Women Voter meetings.
He looked real weak on the KTVU piece when he rolled up the window on the reporter.
Looked like he was running away rather than running for office.

Pinpoint precincts where Pete won big.
Double the turnout in those.
But you still have to get about 3 in 10 Republicans.
$1 million minimum needed to win.
How much cash does Pete have on hand, or does he need to dig into his own millions, and for what, another 2 years in congress?

Tonight, Stark the loser.
Pareja did terrific 22.1% combined and without spending money.

Even if Stark beats Swalwell in November, 1:13 am, wouldn't this showing make Swalwell competitive against Ro in 2014. So, isn't your analysis about Ro incorrect, even if Swalwell loses. Or do you think he'll be tainted as a two time loser then.

So much for Tea Party support on Pareja...lol what a joke. So many volunteers and and it made no difference. Swallwell is the man. Swallwell firt time to bat for the congressional seat and he whipped 3 time runner Tea party Wac job Pareja hands down. Hurray Swallwell.

Next time Pareja do not make fun of my candidate Swallwell. He is a district attorney and councilman..what are you?

10:20 AM

Swalwell has this ONE chance. If he loses, even in a close election, he won't stand a chance in 2014.
By then, he would face a seasoned, young, fresh, field of candidates who would have spent 2 years preparing for battle.
If he managed to gain one of the top two spots, the others in group would all rally around the other single candidate. Swalwell isn't part of that crowd. He isn't in the "club".

No, its now or never for Swalwell.
In fact if he does beat Stark, he will still get a strong opposition in 2014.
Ro won't give up and will have 2 million by then.
So unless he turns in a great 2 year performance in office, he will be challenged.

But first, he must beat Stark.
If the Alameda County 21% turnout goes up to 40% or more, it could be close.
One would have to check the individual precincts to see how the western part of the district voted.
Union City, Hayward, Castro Valley.
If their turnout was really dismal, then Pete's combined forces has room to really change that in November.
He will muster lots of grass roots people and produce turnout in areas where he out performed Swalwell by a big margin.

How to do that while keeping Pete from more gaffes and blunders. Can't appear to hide for 5 months and yet can't let everyone see him in the type of performances that brought him down.

Whats a campaign to do?

BTW, Pareja did great given all the factors.

Also, Stark's margin is less than noted, because you have to include the Contra Costa voters.

Brings Stark down a full point from 42.8% to under 41.8%. Shockingly low. Perception is that Stark is in great danger. He took the opposition and new district too lightly, knowing he'd make the final two with no effort. But now, with his poor showing, there is blood in the water and people sense that.

if Pete Stark wins in November the new candidates will bring more formidable seasoned opponents that are already in city council and school boards that will just make Chris Pareja inconsequential. I know already of a school board member and a city council man that will just run circles around Pareja and Swallwell. So, if Stark wins then it is over for Swallwell and Pareja for good.

Oops posted in the wrong area before.

Pareja has no business resume. At least Swallwell is prosecutor and city council man. What does Chris Pareja have? Chris Pareja has phony business websites.

http://www.b2bpowerexchange.com/ and http://www.leadgenaires.com/

according to google traffic they hardly get any hits. They are phony web front businesses with no activity in income.

Perhaps Pareja needs to compare his tax return against my candidate Swallwell to determine where their income comes from. My hunch Pareja has no job or business.
Show us your tax returns Pareja. Prove your claims of a real business owner

So, 1:24 are you predicting a Swalwell win in November based on the numbers? Or is the edge still with Stark?

2:58, Good God, Pareja isn't running anymore.

He is out of the November runoff.
Give it a break, there is no one needing to be convinced one way or the other about Pareja.
He did extremely well on Tuesday.

You can start bashing him again 2 years from now.
Until then, you'd be wise to be nice to the Pareja supporters. Your candidate will need them to beat Stark.

Swalwell is going to beat Stark. He doesn't need a bunch of Pareja supporters or radical tea party folks. He's going to get more of the Dems. Watch. I predict Swalwell will win easily in November, and then you'll have to kiss his ass anyway as the incumbent member for many years from this district. You might as well get on the bandwagon now. He's won this race. The momentum is with him.

1:24

If Swalwell can hold pete to 42 and get 35. That's a solid Swalwell base. How would Ro compete. Ro's not going to outperform Pete. He wont get any votes that Pete didn't get and that went to Swalwell.

Swalwell will be the Congressman from this area for many years. You better get used to it. Better start being nice to him. And the smart ones will realize to jump on his bandwagon before too late

to 3:12 Pareja is nothing compared to Swallwell. I cannot believe I voted for Pareja to later discover I was lied to that he own a business. Liar Liar Pareja.

Those websites of Chris Pareja are a fabrication for a fallacy of business ownership. Liar Pareja, he is not a business owner.

So 2:58 brings out a good point of how dishonest some of these candidates really are. I am glad Pareja is out.

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