EAST BAY CITIZEN. EVERYWHERE SINCE 2009

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

EBCitizen.com ELECTION liveBLOG

HAYASHI IS GOING TO NEED A MIRACLE IN SUPERVISORS RACE
8:55pm-It may turn out that East Bay voters are more informed than advertised. Early results show appointed Alameda County Supervisor Richard Valle with a comfortable lead over Mark Green and Mary Hayashi.

Hayashi, trails Valle in third place with 23.53%; Green is second with 29.44%. Retired deputy sheriff Mark Turnquist registers with 8.73%.

The early tally is somewhat of a surprise. Few believed Green would be in a position to finish above Hayashi and puts her political career potentially at a dead end. A win, however, would have erased her Oct. 25, 2011 transgression at Neiman Marcus. It also makes quite a few people feeling like they dodged a bullet in both ridicule and retribution. 

LEE WITH COMFORTABLE LEAD IN SAN LEANDRO D4; PROLA LEADS
8:45pm-Benny Lee holds a 11-point lead over Chris Crow in San Leandro's District 4. In early voting, Lee leads with 39.88%, Crow 28.28%, Darlene Daevu 21.39%, Justin Hutchison 9.90%. Hutchison's poor showing might be a problem for Lee, who had campaign with him extensively. Where did Daevu's voter bloc go? Based on the shoreline wind turbine issue, it's probably not Lee.

Councilman Jim Prola also leads the two-person RCV race in District 6 over Hermy Almonte. Prola leads 56-42%.

A CLOSE ONE IN SAN LEANDRO; RCV LIKELY TO DECIDE WINNER
8:40pm-It looks like Bal Theater owner Dan Dillman may indeed decide the winner of San Leandro's District 2 council seat. In a race sure to hinge on ranked-choice voting, Councilmember Ursula Reed leads early results with 42.37%; Morgan Mack-Rose 38.74%, Dillman 18.42%

While passing the 40 percent mark in a three-person race is a strong positive for Reed's re-election chances, her lead is still slim. Who did Dillman's first place voters choose second? That's quite unclear.

BONTA, QUIRK LEAD ASSEMBLY RACES
8:35pm-Rob Bonta and Bill Quirk are not only two Democrats facing their ideological brethren, but also two candidates with nearly identical five point leads after early results.

Bonta leads Abel Guillen 52.80-47.20%. Quirk leads Dr. Jennifer Ong, 52.25-47.75%. If the results in Bonta's 18th District holds, he would become the first Filipino American member of the state Legislature.

SWALWELL LEADS BIG IN CD15; LEE WITH 84%
8:30pm-Eric Swalwell's quixotic bid for Congress is nearing fruitious. After early absentee votes, Swalwell leads Rep. Pete Stark, 54-45% with over 62,000 votes counted. In Contra Costa County, Swalwell leads 61-37 with over 9,000 votes tabulated.

In CD13, Rep. Barbara Lee is heading back to Congress. Early results show her leading Marilyn Singleton, 84-16%.

MICHELADA SERVED
8:05pm-I project that it is good.

A GATHERING STORM...
8:00pm-Will Pete Stark head for retirement in Maryland? Will Eric Swalwell needs to look for a place in DC or a new couch in Dublin? Have the political gods given Mary Hayashi a reprieve? Does Richard Valle become a local joke? Bonta in Sacramento? Quirk right behind him? We shall soon find out...

NBC CALLS CALIFORNIA FOR OBAMA
8:00pm-About three seconds after polls close in the Golden State, NBC News projects President Barack Obama wins California.

UPDATE ON CROW IN SAN LEANDRO
7:55pm-You have to hand it to Chris Crow, he's not going down without a fight to the last minute. I received another tip that he is not only waving his campaign signs in front of a polling place in San Leandro, but also stopping cars as they enter the driveway and holding up traffic.

REPLACING WASSERMAN IN FREMONT
7:25pm-Up here in central county we often forget about the sleeping giant in Fremont. That's a shame because there's been a great race going on in Fremont for mayor between councilmembers Bill Harrison and Anu Natarajan. Both are great candidates and very capable and some healing will be required starting tomorrow. But, let's not forget about tonight's also representing a chance for Fremont to move forward following the passing last year of Mayor Bob Wasserman. Both candidates were close to Wasserman and whomever wins the tight race will surely bringing a little part of Wasserman's political goodwill to the next council. I would guess Harrison will win, but honestly, I have no idea how the area's large Indian population moves or whether its a monolith capable raising Natarajan's boat by itself.

RISE....
7:15pm-


ONE HOUR TO GO...
7:00pm-Vote now or forever hold your peace. Eric Swalwell just tweeted he'll pick you up and drive you to the polls. I'm thinking about seeing if he'll pick up a couple Doritos Locos tacos.

CROW'S LIST OF TRANSGRESSIONS GROW
6:20pm-I just got off the phone with a San Leandro resident who says District 4 candidate Chris Crow is waving his campaign sign in front of the San Leandro Marina Community Center on Wicks Blvd. That's also within spitting distance of a large polling place. I don't know whether Crow is outside the radius of the polling place, but it's another trick right out of the Mayor Stephen Cassidy playbook of Election Day tricks.

Some might recall the portly Cassidy did exactly the same in 2010 at the very same polling place. Lasst month, I wrote an article about a former Cassidy supporter admonished in 2010 for passing out campaign literature at a high school who was doing the exactly same thing this year for Cassidy-backed council candidate Morgan Mack-Rose. Crow is also the same candidate who emailed me this campaign to say, "Why do you hate me so much?"

OTHER THINGS I THINK...
5:45pm-I think.....Mary Hayashi is going to win. Rob Bonta in AD18 will become the first Filipino American ever elected to the state Legislature and be joined in next December's rookie class by Bill Quirk in AD20. San Leandro District 2 candidate Morgan Mack-Rose will upset incumbent Ursula Reed and that will be big for the mayor and his designs on screwing over working people. Yet, that didn't matter to the Alameda Labor Council. They endorsed Mack-Rose. Stoooopid! I think the Democratic Party and labor is going to have a lot of egg on their face tomorrow. I have no idea what is going to happen in Oakland. But, I think Sean Sullivan is going to take District 3. I think Luis Reynoso is going to win one of the seats on the Hayward school board, but who knows about the other two? It doesn't matter really because none of the other candidates are likely to help him put the screws to the district to make them do their jobs. I think if Swalwell wins, the crop of heavyweights for his seat in 2014 should treat him like he's not an incumbent. In 2014, the newpapers won't accept his story pitches like they did this year to great damage to Stark, either

AN UPSET IN CD15?
5:35pm-I think Eric Swalwell is going to win. I think he sold people a product they didn't know they wanted and a close races is going to hinge on the Tri Valley being more passionate than the rank-in-file. It's a gut feeling that I remember ignoring in 2010 during the San Leandro mayoral race between Stephen Cassidy and Mayor Tony Santos. There was an age difference there, too, and a fervor and disrespect by Cassidy supporters for the incumbent mayor. It will be shame because the Swalwell I know is utterly immature and colossally self-indulgent.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH SAN LEANDRO?
5:20pm-One of the benefits of expanding coverage to Oakland is having their insiders shit all over San Leandro. Especially since the Assembly district now includes San Leandro, those in Oakland have renewed interest in what goes down there. The standard refrain to me is, "What is wrong with San Leandro?" The statement always refers to the dearth of suitable council candidates and they are totally correct.

This fall, three seat are open featuring nine candidate, two of which are incumbents. Aside from the incumbents, the level of political knowledge drops precipitously. There's no reason for it. Ranked-choice voting was supposed to help attract more and better candidates, but it seems like it's worse. One candidate, for instance, is obviously either borrowing heavily from the mayor's anti-pension message or employing him as his speechwriter. Of course, those dumbasses at the Bay Area News Group chose that same person for an endorsement.

HOW HIGH CAN B.LEE GO?
5:10pm-Anybody think Rep. Barbara Lee can top 90 percent tonight over Republican Marilyn Singleton? Lee garnered over 83 percent with two challengers in the June primary. About Singleton: I met her last February in Dublin and had no idea who she was, as in, really? You're a candidate? Meanwhile, I saw a lawn sign for Singleton in Alameda and it looks like its been there since 2010.


STARK NEEDS THE PARTY FAITHFUL TO BE BE FAITHFUL
5:05pm-Even though some are saying turnout will be around 70 percent statewide, I'm still not getting that vibe in Alameda County. Yet, the vote-by-mail numbers seem low. Are more people waiting for today to vote?

The key for Stark is the bet long-time Democratic Party stalwarts will stick to ol' Pete. The excellent Tea Party hit piece agaisnt Swalwell was an indicatio of this belief in sussing out the differences between the two Democrats.

EBC's Shane Bond made a good point earlier today. All the Stark craziness occurred before the June primary and Stark still won. Nothing other than Swalwell/San Francisco Chronicle manufactured stories have happened. It's been quiet. There may be a Hayashi thing going on where people like us lose ourselves in the forest and forget regular people have other things to do and they don't remember what Stark said in April like they cannot match the Assembly member to the person who stole clothes from Neiman Marcus.

HAYWARD SCHOOL BOARD RACE MAY BE ABOUT SURNAMES, BALLOT ID
4:55pm-An excellent Hayward source told me recently the six person school board race in Hayward will likely come down to whomever has a Latino surname and whether their ballot designation appeals to voters, primarily those with children in the school district.

That would mean the favorites would be school trustee Luis Reynoso, Heather Reyes and possibly Annette Walker, if people know she speaks Spanish fluently. Sara Lamnin's name recognition is also a plus, said the source. Three spots are open with just one incumbent, Reynoso.

This race became up-for-grab after The Citizen reported trustees Jesus Armas and Maribel Heredia were participating in extra-curriculars behind the board's back and their significant others. Curiously, neither Armas or Heredia have given a reason to why they chose not to run for re-election. Hmmm...

SAN LEANDRO COULD HAVE FIRST ASIAN AMERICAN COUNCILMEMBER EVER
4:45pm-Benny Lee could make history tonight in San Leandro. If elected to the city's City Council, Lee would be the first Asian American councilmember in the city's long history. Lee is facing Chris Crow, Justin Hutchison and Darlene Daevu in District 4.

The Asian demographic in San Leandro is the city's largest group with nearly 30 percent. Many don't know this fact, yet the group like many minorities in the East Bay have not been able to flex their strength in numbers in politics. That may change tonight. If Lee wins, you can credit a major push by local Asian groups to "make history."

MILLER-COLE AND HIS RUNNING MATE?
4:30pm-Oakland District 3 City Council candidate Alex Miller-Cole is one of those quirky characters only created by Hollywood screenwriters, which is to say, he's not real. I've written before about his comments about opponent, Sean Sullivan, and I find it hard to believe anything he says. I also found it hard to believe people like Nancy Nadel endorsed him. Oh, well, here's what he sent out this morning to supporters

VALBUENA DUMUK SAVES MONEY
3:45pm-I caught up with Alameda City Council candidate Gerard Valbuena Dumuk earlier at Starbucks on Park Street. He told me he's up against some well-funded opponents. In fact, he screen printed his own campaign signs and sent me a short video of it.

video

3:00pm-I voted for President Barack Obama this morning. That's called journalistic honesty. Over the next 12 hours, we're just going to sit back and chat and tell it like it is. Hold on tight!

14 comments :

Thank you Steven Tavares for all that you have done for this community, especially for the children of HUSD. Please keep reporting because you keep them on their toes. We need your voice.

Election live Blog 5:05 "like they cannot match the Assembly member to the person who stole clothes from Neiman Marcus"

You got that right Steven.

Whatever Hayashi ends up with, 33% or 38%, a easy 5% to 10% and possibly MORE could have been ripped away from her with even a average negative campaign hitting at her vunerable "arrest and conviction" issue.
She could have been battered down to 25% with a excellent negative campaign.

That issue should have defined her! She has skated.

We shall see tonight, we shall see what that unused tactical avantage has wrought.
I'm still a bit hopeful, but GAWD, how can you not use such a advantage.

From your Tweet--

eastbaycitizen Amazing traffic on EBCitizen.com. It's like Hayashi stole a bunch of dresses, Nadia Lockyer smoked cracked on the same day! Thanks!

LOL

Swalwell taking Stark to the wood shed. Wonder if it will hold up?

9:28, its still early but last I saw with 42% reporting, Swalwell was whipping his ass.
Importantly they may not have been including Contra Costa County which will break strongly for Swalwell.

So much for the calcified Democratic leadership in Alameda Co...
Cornu, Pete's campaign manager, cut 100% from the old world style. What a mistaken choice. Clearly Pete wasn't thinking any better in private than he exhibited in public when he chose her.

Pete may prove you can run, but if you hide, the people will realized you are frightened and empty candidate.
Cornu, with Pete's approval, did nothing but HIDE Pete for the last 3 months.

Perhaps the voters saw through that lame tactic.

Or perhaps they saw those absurd videos where "Pete Stark answers the Tough Questions". What a joke.

(though the night is still young. not sure where the votes are coming from in CD15)

From Contra Costa Co..
With 5 of 42 precincts reporting

SWALWELL 61.19% 5,386
FORTNEY PETE STARK (Party Preference DEM) 38.81% 3,416

Wow, with 1 in 8 precincts reporting, Swalwell has built up a 2,000 vote margin, suggesting as much as a 16,000 vote margin for Swalwell in Contra Costa County after all precincts in that county are in.

Plus he has a 6,000 vote margin with 232 of 499 precincts reporting in Alameda County.

Gosh, Swalwell is leading by about 8,000 votes.
Unless those other 267 precinct in Alameda County are in Hayward, Union City, Fremont, etc, the Pete Stark is going down, and perhaps by quite a margin.

I wanted Stark to lose, but I am stunned by the margin thus far. I thought if Swalwell could win, it would be in a squeaker. Expected Stark to win by a 4 or 5 percent margin.

Corbett and Ro Khanna must be CRYING right now!

I'm really surprised by the HUSD results. I thought Sara Lamnin was a shoe in considering how much money she raised. I'm still hoping she'll jump but that'll mean Dr. Reynoso is out which I don't know if I want that.

Looks like we'll have 3 Black school board members now an that's definitely a great thing!

I am both pleased and surprised. Swalwell took on and beat the entire Alameda County Democratic Party aristocracy. The sclerotic entrenched gang that had it easy for so many years battling unfunded non-existent Republican no-names.

Remember so well Pete Stark calling him a "pipsqueak" and a "junior leaguer".
Well Pete, he just took you out of office even though you had everyone on your side and a 2 to 1 money advantage.

With 93% of Alameda County in, Swalwell has a 6,500 vote lead and another 2,300 vote lead in CC County, where only 10 of 42 precincts have reported.
Final margin of victory will be around 10,000 votes.
Amazing.

Steve Cassidy making friends with fellow council members. All 3 that he backed going down to defeat

It's nice to see the last bastion of "real journalism" (I mean campaign shill blogger) that is the East Bay Citizen close on November 10th. Steven, we will miss your completely unbiased (I mean completely biased) coverage of an area you are so out of touch with. Good luck in your next endeavor

Thank You Steven for exposing true fraud and corruption I am only dissapointed that the ANG and SL Times is so far removed from the facts and fails to report the truth.

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