Saturday, March 29, 2014

Moneyball: First Quarter East Bay Campaign Finance Reports

CAMPAIGN FINANCESTATE SENATE DISTRICT 10 Mary Hayashi still holds a 4-to-1 money advantage over Assembly Bob Wieckowski in the five-person State Senate 10th District race. Hayashi reported a cash balance of $690,733, as of Mar. 17, according to finance reports. Of her $73,000 in expenditures since Jan. 1, nearly $27,000 was used on polling since Feb. 4. Incidentally, Wieckowski spent $7,500 on polling on Jan. 13 with Juan De Leon Research, Inc., the same firm used a month later by Hayashi’s campaign. While Hayashi and Wieckowski continued to do well with labor and special interests group, Republican Peter Kuo continues his surprising fundraising strength with $121,597 in contributions this year. Most of the donations flowed from Chinese American groups upset with an attempt by the Legislature to roll back Proposition 209. Since the Assembly shelved SCA-5 two weeks ago, keep an eye on whether Kuo can continue fundraising at his past clip.

SD 10.......End Cash..1Q-In.....1Q-Out

HAYASHI.....$690,733  $ 29,900  $ 73,178
WIECKOWSKI..$152,440  $131,181  $ 80,610
KUO.........$109,594  $121,597  $ 38,941
REED........unavailable at this time
BOCK........no report filed

ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS 18, 20 Assemblymembers Rob Bonta and Bill Quirk, both facing their re-election campaigns this year, continue to raise large amounts of money while their opponents scratch for cash. Bonta, who represents Oakland, Alameda and San Leandro in the Assembly, has raised $130,215 this year, according to finance reports. With over two months before the June primary, Bonta has $332,793, as of Mar. 17. Republican David Erlich did not file a campaign finance report. It’s a similar case in the nearby 20th Assembly District. Quirk raised $75,865 since the beginning of the year and reports $171,800 in cash on hand. Meanwhile, Republican challenger Jaime Patino and Hayward school board member Luis Reynoso, now independent, did not report any contributions this year.

AD 18.......End Cash..1Q-In.....1Q-Out
BONTA.......$332,793  $130,215  $113,001
ERLICH......no report filed

AD 20.......End Cash..1Q-In.....1Q-Out
QUIRK.......$171,800  $ 75,865  $ 84,492
PATINO......no report filed
REYNOSO.....no report filed

AD 15.......End Cash..1Q-In.....1Q-Out
ECHOLS......$140,341  $ 58,889  $ 43,403
THURMOND....$ 98,953  $ 66,234  $ 46,515
KANG........$ 68,800  $ 21,184  $ 72,094
HUNT........$ 30,950  $ 43,861  $ 12,911
PRICE.......$ 20,020  $ 54,390  $ 34,370
KINNEY......no report filed
RUYLE.......no report filed
WAHL........no report filed

AD 20.......End Cash..1Q-In.....1Q-Out
GLAZER......$429,608  $150,189  $ 48,950
SBRANTI.....$126,442  $117,761  $ 97,577
BAKER.......$139,965  $ 50,990  $ 18,524
ARNERICH....$ 66,823  $  9,760  $ 15,878

AD 25.......End Cash..1Q-In.....1Q-Out
GOMEZ.......$230,622  $108,556  $ 33,365
CHU.........$201,723  $ 48,186  $ 52,774
STECKLER....$123,480  $ 41,357  $ 21,057
COX.........$ 65,186  $ 12,801  $ 20,378
*All figures from Jan. 1-Mar. 17.
Source: California Secretary of State.


For the 15th Assembly race, i think it will be Thurmond, and Echols after the June 3rd primary. Thurmond has been focusing on winning a seat in the State Assembly since his defeat in 2010. He will be a very tenacious campaigner from June until November.

These raise some interesting questions (maybe, Steve, you have answers to these?):

-Gomez seems to be dead last in the AD25 endorsement race, with Steckler and Chu leading the pack and Cox somewhat behind. So how the heck is he raising that much money, and from whom?

-What is Arnerich's angle? Steve Glazer has claimed the moderate label, and he can't tack to the left of him because Sbranti is there. He will be outspent and his natural constituency is fairly small. I saw that the South County Young Democrats endorsed him (why?) but few other people. I know Swalwell's campaign manager is working for him, so maybe he has something in his back pocket...but at this point, why not just drop out and throw your support to Sbranti or Glazer in return for being in their good graces?

-How does Brunton's entry into the race change things in AD25? I would assume he takes more support from Steckler because they're from the same area and Steckler's work as a police chief would be more alluring to Republicans.

Looking forward to more analysis.

Mary Hayashi loves polling. If you remember back in 2012, she spent quite a bit on polling prior to her run for supervisor.

As she mentioned in the following video, the polling showed she was gonna get lots of votes for supervisor.
She finished 3rd, with less than 25% of the vote.
Watch all of it, pay attention to 0:40 into the video.


I'd love to see the polling questions asked.
I'm sure most of those polled, if not prompted, don't immediately remember Mary's arrest and conviction.
Nor do they realize she is still serving 3 years probation.

I'm sure, if they had just a little info to remind them all about that, then any favorable thinking about Mary would go out the door.
Given the inability of Mary to understand that in 2012, it would appear she is still in denial.
But the polling outfit is more than willing, for a $27,000 fee, to continue to ask questions that don't tell remind voters about her shoplifting arrest and conviction.
You have to wonder who makes up the polling questions.

I'm sure the recent suspension of THREE state senators has made the voters all the more favorable to electing a senator who is ALREADY serving 3 years probation for her prior crimes committed while IN OFFICE..

Mary Hayashi has $690,733 and a very bad story to sell.
Remember, Meg Whitman had over $100,000,000 to spend and she couldn't overcome little Nikki Diaz...


Anonymous 2:39 p.m.:

Newell Arnerich's impressed enough folks at forums and community events that he hopes to nab at least 21% of the vote ... which may be all that's needed to be the Democrat facing off against Republican Baker come November.

Newell figures that his reputation as the "reasonable Democrat" on the Danville Town Council will win him enougg votes of Democrats, Republicans, and Decline-To-State voters in Danville and San Ramon -- turnout can ve expected to be higher there than in Walnut Creek but only at the margins.

That's basically why Tim Sbranti continues to focus on turning out his base in Dublin+Livermore+Pleasanton AND pounding the pavement in Walnut Creek and Lafayette (a citt with no desire to have someone from stuffy Orinda represent them for 12 years).

Steve Glazer hopes his direct mail program -- there's no field operation, despite his cash advantage -- plus a radio ad or two will peel off enough Democrats and DTS voters to reach 21%.

That's the ball game.

As we overheard Chauncey and Edgar on BART talking about the Contra Costa County Assembly election:

Chauncey: Hey, Edgar? You going to be supporting our big-time union whore, Branti?

Edgar: What you mean, Chauncey?

Chauncey: Well, we unions are all bankrolling Branti. He's our dyed in wool union whore whom we're sending up to Sac. Town. He'll do right by us and continue lavishing all the bocu bucks on us.

Edgar: What about the public? That don't seem right to screw duh public over just so the fat cat unions can continue sucking on the public tit. That just aint right!

Chauncey: What the fuck do you care, ma! Aint you one of us? So what if we keep screwing over the public. They too dumb to know what we has been doing to dem like forever. Anyway, if it comes down to dem or us, you know where I is going.

Edgar: Yeah, I know. Guess I'm with you guys. If that clean Steve Glazer gets in he'll do right by the public and put an end to us union whores making off with the public's tax $$$$.

Chauncey: Hell, yeah. Mind you. If I wasn't up there in the union hierarchy getting all that free taxpayer money I'd sure be for clean Steve Glazer. He aint going to help out no special interests, especially big-time union whores like us. Damn, wish I could do right by the public, but I needs the money that I been pickin' out of the other guy's pocket like forever. [Wink of the eye!]

Edgar: You right, Chauncey. We got to do everything we can to get ol' Branti up there in Sac. Town to be our stooge. After all this time, I got me an allergy to work. Sides, I still got me a powerful taste for that mother's milk dat I been suckling off of the public tit like forever. [Wink, wink!]

Steve Glazer is not clean. He has been bought and paid for by the corrupt corporate special interest crooks that continually stick it to consumers. They have spent over two million dollars on his campaign.

Tim Sbranti, on the other hand, is a teacher who is used to compromise and trying to find situations that help all. That's why he is endorsed by Nurses, Police, Fire, the Democratic Party, Consumer groups, Environmental groups, Seniors, Women groups, our current Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan and many others. Look at his site---Tim Sbranti.com

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