Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Primary Questions: AD-20 Preview

Assemblymember Bill Quirk, Luis Reynoso and Jaime Patino.
THE CANDIDATES Bill Quirk nearly lost two years ago despite strong support from the Democratic Party and labor unions. He beat Jennifer Ong by just over 900 votes, yet the close call failed to attract any Democrats to challenge his re-election. As an assemblyman and former Hayward council member and nuclear scientist, Quirk often labels himself the lower house’s expert on all things scientific. He helped pass fracking regulations and has been one of the most vocal proponents of gun control, which raised the ire of some second amendment advocates…One of Quirk’s primary challengers from 2012 is back again, this time shedding the Republican marker for that of an independent. Hayward school board member Luis Reynoso finished fourth two years ago and he is back again with a focus on state funding for schools…Republican Jaime Patino is a newcomer from the Union City Human Relations Commission who has ingratiated himself with a county party looking to rebuild its image in the East Bay. Patino believes in smaller government, but he, like Reynoso, support gay rights.

MAIN BEEF Quirk can often seem aloof and grumpy at candidate’s forums. His quiet scowl has been seen often in this race following repeated attacks by Reynoso and Patino over Quirk's long-time support for the Calpine Russell City Energy Center on the Hayward shoreline. Earlier this year, a regional air quality agency found the plant released 10 times the amount of approved water particulate into the air. The rhetoric has been filled with hyperbole—Reynoso called it a “smokestack"—while Patino has continually browbeat Quirk for his support of the plant. Quirk has responded to the tag-team strategy with his typical brand of aplomb sprinkled with a dash of exasperation.

QUOTABLE “The plant—it’s quite healthy." Quirk said of the Russell City Energy Center in late March at a candidate's forum in Hayward.

BY THE NUMBERS Voter Registration: Democratic 54.2%; No Party Preference 20.7%; Republican 15.7%.

Campaign Finance: cash on hand through May 17: Quirk $202,218; Patino, no report filed; Reynoso, no report filed.

2012 Primary Result: Bill Quirk (D) 30.3%; Jennifer Ong (D) 25.7%; Mark Green (NPP) 20.3%; Luis Reynoso (R) 17.7%; Sarabjit Cheema (D) 6.0%.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Quirk 2. Patino 3. Reynoso.

ON TO NOVEMBER Like the race in the 18th Assembly District, Quirk should have little problem winning re-election. However, Quirk’s opponents in this race have similar, in-your-face personalities and a certain cachet, at least for Republicans in these parts. But, Quirk is like a fighter who can withstand many blows without going down. The question, though, is whether either Patino or Reynoso can soften Quirk up for the next election cycle. The district is being overrun by moderates like Swalwell and the entire Hayward City Council. It’s conceivable, Quirk, who is one of the more progressive members of the Assembly, could be challenged in 2016 by a moderate in the style of Swalwell or Khanna and this pair of moderate conservatives have the ability to highlight his weaknesses.


Loser Reynoso, who has been responsible for Hayward's schools low, low scores, has NO chance against Bill Quirk.

Just wait Steven. Quirk will go down! I will fight for every vote in the district and ask every friend I have for donations. He may have the unions to write big checks, but I have the regular guy backing me. People just trying to make a living and raise their kids. Jaime Patino

Jaime Ratino you won't get even 20% of the vote, but you might beat Reynoso for second. Quirk will get over 60%.

What has Quirk done to earn 60% of the vote? Name one piece of legislation he has sponsored and passed? He has said openly that Moderate Democrats are the problem in the Legislature. Go to the video of the first debate we had if you don't believe me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htaoziJbQ3Q. Why should moderate Democrats vote for a guy that he doesn't even like? Hear some of the things he has said and that should prove that he is even more far left than most Democrats and the 20th Assembly District. Most of his constituents don't even know who he is! While my team and I are going door to door and attending local event, he has done nothing. Just like he has done nothing in the Legislature. He's out of sight and out of touch! Jaime Patino

Absolutely unbelievable that Quirk thinks Americans don't have a right to own guns. Anyone who walks over our civil rights like that has got to go.

Quirk will win easily because he represents a very progressive district and is reflecting the will of the voters. Reynoso and Patino don't have a chance. You will see in a few days.

1:33 you are right! I know Quirk and Reynoso, but Patino??..really please. I opine for Quirk to have to deal with Reynoso in November. Quirk is too weird and rude and not a champion to clean up corruption around the Calpine fiasco. Rynoso is an old style fighter politician and I like that.

If the jerk Quirk does get in, then we'll recall his ass in November. He's a dick who don't know shit.

Need good conservative values!

He is doing what our progressive district wants him to do. Bill Quirk is running away with this race. :)

If the jerk Quirk does get in, then we'll recall his ass in November. He's a dick who don't know shit.

Need good conservative values!

The dick who don't know shit is anon 11:26. Quirk will win very easily. He's running against 2 nobodies.

Prediction: Quirk 60%, Patino 25%, Reynoso 15%

Patino?? after this election we will still not know who he is. Even in Union City where he claims he lives we do not know who he is so I do not think anyone in Hayward or Castro valley know him either. Patine who?? Quirk will win.

Patino will get the same results like any unknown = Sarabjit Cheema 6.0% . End of story. lol

Reynoso will be second but Quirk will win for because he is the one people want.

If the jerk Quirk does get in, then we'll recall his ass in November. He's a dick who don't know shit.

Need good conservative values!

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Quirk will win big in June and bigger in November. Done deal.

If the jerk Quirk does get in, then we'll recall his ass in November. He's a dick who don't know shit.

Need good conservative values!

Done deal.

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Conservatives don't have values. They just try to force their beliefs on everyone else! Quirk wins---done deal.

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