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Friday, June 6, 2014

Tuman Weclomes Kaplan to Oakland Mayor's Race with a Dig

Joe Tuman
OAKLAND | MAYOR | Oakland mayoral candidate Joe Tuman welcomed Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan to the race on Friday, but wasted little time before taking a dig at her nascent candidacy and Mayor Jean Quan.

"This is one more sign of a complete loss of confidence in the current mayor to win a second term," said Tuman in a message to his supporters. "Another candidate from City Hall only reinforces my message that we need to elect an outsider to challenge the status quo and work to implement real change."

Tuman, a San Francisco State political science professor, who ran along with Kaplan in the 2010 election also skewered her use of the tagline, “Oakland isn't ungovernable. It's just ungoverned.”

Rebecca Kaplan
"I couldn’t agree more," said Tuman. "At the same time I find it ironic that as a governing council member who has occupied the citywide council seat for six years, Councilmember Kaplan would choose to emphasize Oakland is 'ungoverned' as she asks voters for a promotion."

Kaplan's presence in the early stages of the mayoral campaign has already been felt even before her announcement on Thursday. Over the past six months, various polls showed Kaplan as a front runner in the ranked choice voting race, if she were to enter the race.

In addition, some of the same polls revealed Tuman's campaign also showing considerable strength this year. Four years ago, Kaplan finished third in the mayor's race to Quan and Don Perata. Tuman followed in fourth place.

18 comments :

She's the front runner according to all the polls. Where does that leave Tuman? Is it now fifth place for Joe?

Tuman chances are not good. His chances were never very good

Front runner? Sad comment on Oakland.

Oakland residents brace for yet another stupid election decision.

Dellums---> Quan ----> God only knows who.....

If not for Oakland's geographic location, in the heart of the most vibrant economic area in the nation, then our current leaders would have this place looking like Cleveland Ohio, or Flint Michigan.

Everything good that has happened in Oakland over the past 8 years, has been in spite of Dellums and Quan.
Sadly Jean Quan thinks she has been responsible for any progress.
Even bad poker players get dealt a few good hands over time.
She takes a winning hand as proof of her skills, overlooking all the other hands she has blown.

I'll defeat all these candidates with less than $1,000. http://oaklandwiki.org/Peter_Y._Liu

By MW:

In regard to the race for mayor of Oakland, I am surprised that the East Bay Citizen has not yet published an article concerning Jean Quan's recent auto accident, and especially since Quan has a well deserved reputation for generally being at least ninety percent asleep even when her eyes are still open.

No article on Quan's driving because EBCitizen thinks Quan is going to be reelected. Don't want to mess with potential access to the chief.

Ha! To be honest, the reality is a reporter needs to take into account the potential loss of access, but that isn't going on here and yes, I have Quan winning, as of today, but it's becoming less likely rather than more likely.

I already wrote a column on the Quan accident, but I haven't posted it. Why? Because unlike your newspapers, I think it's better to wait before making declarations. I'm not going to admit unverified accounts of the accident in the lede paragraph like the Chronicle did yesterday

Shame that even the local micromedia is so committed to the status quo in Oakland.

By MW:

Concerning the post of 5:31PM, since Quan has such a huge number of opponents, I believe it is now up to an unbelievably huge seventeen, she does have a high chance of being re-elected.

In other words if all and each of her seventeen opponents were to put their names in a hat and only one name was then drawn, and that person, and whoever he or she was, was then the only person to run against Quan, in other words a straight up one on one contest, there is high chance Quan would lose, and an extremely high chance if Quan's one on one opponent was one of the stronger challengers, and such as for instance Rebecca Kaplan.

However with seventeen opponents and those seventeen probably grabbing votes far more from each other than from Quan, in other words splitting the vote, she could easily win:

1. Simply because some people will almost always automatically vote for the incumbent and even if the incumbent is Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, or Porky Pig;

2. As the incumbent she also has a certain amount of name recognition;

2A. The huge number of opponents will cause considerable confusion in most people's minds concerning which candidate stands for what;

and 2B. And related to 2A immediately above, will cause many voters to decide to stay with the status quo rather than deciding to vote for a challenger who they really do not remember the positions of.

In other words if Quan wins, it will very likely be due to most voters not remembering which challenger stood for what and therefore which challenger they preferred.

However Quan is so terrible that therefore if I were an Oakland resident and could not remember which of her seventeen challengers stood for what, I would almost be inclined to put the names of her seventeen opponents in a hat, draw one name, and then vote for that person. In other words anyone except Quan.

"I would almost be inclined to put the names of her seventeen opponents in a hat, draw one name, and then vote for that person. In other words anyone except Quan."

Voting usefully (that is, for change) in the fall is really going to require a much higher level of intelligence than Oakland voters usually bring to the polls. It means simply not voting for anyone who is currently a resident of city hall--this includes not only Quan, but also Kaplan and Schaaf. Courtney Ruby I think is a reasonable alternative because she, although a city hall resident, has taken on the status quo at least to some degree.

Another problem is that ebcitizen and other local media as well, makes absolutely no effort to do the research that might help voters distinguish between candidates on a rational basis.

The most predictable result is that there will be very little change, if any, coming to city hall in the fall. Which current city hall resident candidate will win is a toss up, but the crowded field and the incompetence of the media suggest no change is possible.

Now that Kaplan has jumped in, the race for Mayor has been settled according to the polls of oakland voters taken by reputable pollsters not connected to a candidate. She is extremely popular and should win.

"The race for Mayor has been settled according to the polls of oakland voters taken by reputable pollsters."

Uh huh. Democracy is stupid, the future is ordained, might as well fugeddaboudit. The anointed always win.

Take a minute and read about the recent "success" of Rep. Eric Cantor. A shoo-in. Ahead in the polls by 30%.

Polls are polls, not facts.

As Yogi put it: "It ain't over 'til it's over."


Kaplan is smart and does her homework. She should win.

"Tuman who?"

"Precisely!"

Revealing comments from Oakland's typically well-informed electorate. Or maybe not from Oakland and not voters. Maybe not well-informed.

Anon above----check out the polls if you can read?

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