|Assemblymember Rob Bonta, left, defeated David Erlich by 70 percentage points in the June Primary. They meet again in November. PHOTO/Steven Tavares|
WHAT’S THE BEEF? As it pertains to local issues confronting the district, the rhetoric now, and during the primary, is few and far between. That’s not to say there are not significant ideological differences in this race. In fact, they are monumental, but the conflict is more general. Like watching the talking heads on cable television spout the party lines of the left and right. Bonta touts the state’s economic upturn, while Erlich says the surplus is a ruse when billions in unfunded pension costs are still on the state’s ledger. The race was neatly summed up last month at a forum in Alameda when Bonta declared, "I think we're starting to see difference between me and my opponent. He doesn't believe in taxes. He doesn't believe in government." Erlich disagreed.
PAST RESULTS 2014 June Primary: 1. Rob Bonta (D) 44,321 (85.8%) 2. David Erlich (R) 7,358 (14.2%); 2012 General Election: 1. Rob Bonta (D) 75,865 (50.5%) 2. Abel Guillen (D) 74,422 (49.5%).
CAMPAIGN FINANCE (Through Sept. 30) Bonta $440,469 cash on hand; $177,656 since last filing; Erlich, no finance report filed.
OUTLOOK Erlich is fully aware he's in for another drubbing this November and he has been honest about the reason he’s running for the seat: Bonta shouldn’t be running unopposed. In one of the most shining moments of political honesty, Erlich said this about his chances of winning, “Buy a lottery ticket, you’lll have a better chance.” As in the primary, either this race or Rep. Barbara Lee’s, will represent the most-lopsided result in the entire East Bay.
PREDICTION 1. Bonta 2. Erlich