|State Senate District 7 candidates: Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer, former Assembymember Joan Buchanan and Assemblymember Susan Bonilla.|
One of two mailers from a labor-backed IE
telling Republicans to vote for the candidate
who dropped out of the race in February.
PAST RESULTS 2012 June Primary: 1. Mark DeSaulnier (D) 91,224 (57.0%) 2. Mark Meuser (R) 68,730 (43.0%). 2012 General Election: 1. DeSaulnier (D) 229,105 (61.5%) 2. Meuser (R) 143,707 (38.5%).
VOTER REGISTRATION Democratic 210,970 (43.6%) Republican 103,854 (28.7%) 3. No Party Preference 106,268 (22.0%) American Independent 13,654 (2.8%) Libertarian 3,053 (0.6%) Green Party 2,020 (0.4%).
CAMPAIGN FINANCE (Through Feb 28): Bonilla $181,535 cash remaining, $480,901 received; Buchanan $111,248 cash remaining, $284,005 receiving; Glazer $94,918 cash remaining, $213,685 received; Hertle, no report; Kremin, no report.
OUTLOOK There are some many interesting angles to take into account here. Either Bonilla or Buchanan will finish in the top two, but likely not both after the controversies in the race. Vote-by-mail data showing Republicans sending in their ballots at higher rates than Democrats suggests they are energized. It's unlikely this group is being stirred up by the Republican who had zero name I.D., no money and dropped out the race a month ago. Furthermore, if Republicans are being pushed to Glazer, independent are probably, too. Might even moderate Democrats be enticed by Glazer in this environment? It's also important to note, the 15-point voter registration advantage Democrats hold over Republicans is not as wide as it seems since the 7th District is hardly the bastion of progressive politics, although there are some strongholds. So, if Glazer advances, who does he face in May? If you ask Democrats in Sacramento, they will likely say, Bonilla. But, that support may be derived from her incumbency and the fact her colleagues are averse from criticizing one of their own. At the local level, you more often hear predictions for Buchanan. It's tough to say which group is correct. However, the argument Buchanan is more well-known to voters in a majority of the state senate district seems as plausible as any. Another thing to remember: while turnout is higher than expected for a special election, it's still likely to be very low in the grand scheme of things. Low turnout elections often brings strange results. If, indeed, Glazer is in the mix, you can guarantee another onslaught of special interests money pouring in to support and greatly oppose, is candidacy.
PREDICTION 1. Buchanan 2. Glazer 3. Bonilla 4. Hertle 5. Kremin