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Monday, May 18, 2015

SD7 Election Preview: Which special interest will reign supreme?

Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer and Assemblymember Susan Bonila
MEET THE CANDIDATES Susan Bonilla represents almost half of the voters in Seventh District as an Assemblymember representing a portion of Contra Costa County. She is also a former high school teacher and county supervisor who has the endorsement of the Democratic Party and the former holder of the seat, Mark DeSaulnier, who left the seat for Congress. But, the endorsement that holds the greatest implications in this special election is Bonilla's strong ties to labor. Bonilla is also viewed as strong on education and the environment, although her stances on the latter are also similar to her opponent. Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer ran a similar campaign in last year's 16th Assembly District. Heavy on portraying himself as a moderate Democrat and reformer far removed from the traditional liberal acquiescence to the demands of labor unions. His early opposition to BART strikes put him on the radar last year, but he still only finished third in Assembly race's June Primary. This time around, the former consultant to Gov. Jerry Brown breezed to a nine-point victory in the March primary over Bonilla and another Democrat Joan Buchanan.

WHAT’S THE BEEF Maybe Bonilla and Glazer have differences in their platform, but there has been very little focus on substantive ideas and policies, as they pertain to representing the district in the State Senate. Like the March primary, this race has been a proxy war between labor unions supporting Bonilla and interests from the state Chamber of Commerce supporting Glazer, in addition, to over $2 million from centrist Southern California businessman Bill Bloomfield. The Koch Brothers even reared their head in this race through an independent expenditure committee. On both sides millions have been spent by IEs that dwarfed astronomical outlays in last year's Assembly race and State Senate primary in March. In fact, if they cared to do so, voters in the Seventh District could make a very thick coffee table book featuring all the direct-mail pieces that have been created for this special election. In a likely bid to return prominence to the BART strike issue, Glazer charged union members with illegal electioneering on BART premises. Bonilla agreed, but also charged Glazer with doing the same in the past. A heavy-circulated campaign photo from the Assembly race of Glazer perched on a BART platform confirmed the allegation.

PAST RESULTS 2015 Special Primary: 1. Steve Glazer (D) 37,664 (33.7%) 2. Susan Bonilla (D) 27,728 (24.8%) 3. Joan Buchanan (D) 25,147 (22.5%)4. Michaela Hertle (R) 18,008 (16.1%) 5. Terry Kremin (D) 3,175 (2.8%).

2012 June Primary: 1. Mark DeSaulnier (D) 91,224 (57.0%) 2. Mark Meuser (R) 68,730 (43.0%). 2012 General Election: 1. DeSaulnier (D) 229,105 (61.5%) 2. Meuser (R) 143,707 (38.5%).

VOTER REGISTRATION Democratic 210,970 (43.6%) Republican 103,854 (28.7%) 3. No Party Preference 106,268 (22.0%) American Independent 13,654 (2.8%) Libertarian 3,053 (0.6%) Green Party 2,020 (0.4%).

OUTLOOK Glazer put Bonilla's campaign in an early hole with his strong performance in the primary. It's not that Bonilla's second place finish was poor, but that support between her base in Contra Costa County was so uneven as compared to her dismal 14 percent performance elsewhere in the district. This area is known for being a very educated electorate and vote-by-mail data shows every ideological category is outpacing turnout over the primary when over 22 percent of voters cast a ballot. However, other than the war of IEs in this race--already a continuation of the primary discussion--the subject of this race has not changed. This is a big potential misstep by Bonilla's campaign since the default in this race is banning BART strikes and that's Glazer's greatest strength. Yet, the race didn't really focus on BART strikes until the last few weeks when Glazer brought it back to the headlines. Labor's overwhelming presence for Bonilla in this race might be her downfall. In an independent poll last Friday, 60 percent of respondents said they believe transit strikes should be prohibited. This means a boatload of union volunteers were swarming a district where they are not liked, which likely makes for some awkward Saturday afternoons for volunteers seeking votes for Bonilla. Also, don't forget. These two, and others, can do it all again in 2016.

PREDICTION 1. Glazer 2. Bonilla

19 comments :

Glazer is not clean since he has taken over twice as much special interest money( about 7 million) than his cleaner opponent Susan Bonilla. What a bought and paid for corporate joke he is!

Glazer has a rich developer Billionaire from SoCal pouring millions into his election because he wants NoCal drinking water to go South. He also has the extreme conservative out of state billionaires, the Koch Brothers now pouring millions into his campaign.

My friends and I will be voting for the more moderate Susan Bonilla backed by Congressmen Eric Swalwell, Mark DeSaulnier and former Congressman George Miller as well as Police and Fire. Susan Bonilla is the people's choice and the moderate candidate. Glazer raised taxes many times in Orinda as a Councilman.

Clean Steve Glazer gets our vote. He's the only principled Democrat who has integrity and is not beholden to the union whore stooges.

Congratulations on today's overwhelming victory, SENATOR-ELECT STEVE GLAZER!!!!!!!

We in SD7 lose, but will have another crack at him in 2016 when many more votes will be cast.

Written like a true union whore. You shits couldn't win last November. You couldn't win in March. You couldn't win last night and you won't win at all. You whores just don't get it.

The public has wised up to the dirty and toxic union whores. We, the PEOPLE have taken back our political system. Union whores have been vanquished once again. Our dear Assemblywoman Cathy Baker and Senator-elect Steve Glazer will now make sure that BART strikes are illegal, as should always have been the case.

You continue to to get trounced by the PEOPLE. Dirty union sluts will no longer pick the public's pockets clean. You are irrelevant and vanquished. This district now goes moderate to conservative. Reality and politics 99!

The People crap on you like you did to us.

What hasn't been pointed out so far is that Glazer was almost totally funded by anti-consumer groups. The middle and lower class lost when he won. Our family doesn't belong to a union but I agree that 2016 will bring out more anti-Glazer voters and will probably spell his doom. Usually more progressive candidates win in presidential years. 23% voting in this election will be doubled or tripled in 2016. Those voters will represent the people.

What hasn't been pointed out is that Second Place Sue, she is a Second Place Sue, was the people's choice for Number Two--best the bitch can do. She joins the scrap heap of rejects: MITTbranti, Whorbett, HO Tam, HO-Yashi, Whortney Stark, the list goes on and on.

Until union whores bend over and admit that they are irrelevant and must do their masters--the people--bidding, their puppets will continue to go down to defeat. Next up, we're going to take out Dick Valley. No union sluts need apply!

The middle class lost this one, but we will win in November 2016.

Loving Senator Steve Glazer for the next 13 years!

You union sluts gave it your all, and the public decided that you're worthless and toxic. Steve is the People's Choice, as was evidenced by his election blowout victory.

This is Politics 99. He was never going to be allowed to fail since he always had the PEOPLE on his team. BART strikes are now on their way to the ash bin of history. Along with our dear Assemblywoman Cathy Baker, the district has been realigned to moderate-conservative. We who live in the district are very happy, indeed.

Steve's victory is your loss, and we will continue to remind you union sluts of that fact. Next up, we take out Dick Valley in the next election and throw him on the scrap heap of history along with MITTbranti, Whorbett, Bitchchanan, Second Place Sue, Whortese, can't write anymore since the list of LOSERS is so, so long.

How sweet it is for THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE WINNERS!!!

Special interest union whores and their toxic and corrupt money sure did lose this one--big time!

Well the corporate slut Glazer won, but will lose in 2016. The most corrupt money came from the corporations.

We agree!

Loving Senator Steve Glazer for the next 13 years!

You union sluts gave it your all, and the public decided that you're worthless and toxic. Steve is the People's Choice, as was evidenced by his election blowout victory.

This is Politics 99. He was never going to be allowed to fail since he always had the PEOPLE on his team. BART strikes are now on their way to the ash bin of history. Along with our dear Assemblywoman Cathy Baker, the district has been realigned to moderate-conservative. We who live in the district are very happy, indeed.

Steve's victory is your loss, and we will continue to remind you union sluts of that fact. Next up, we take out Dick Valley in the next election and throw him on the scrap heap of history along with MITTbranti, Whorbett, Bitchchanan, Second Place Sue, Whortese, can't write anymore since the list of LOSERS is so, so long.

How sweet it is for THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE WINNERS!!!

What hasn't been pointed out so far is that Glazer was almost totally funded by anti-consumer groups. The middle and lower class lost when he won. Our family doesn't belong to a union but I agree that 2016 will bring out more anti-Glazer voters and will probably spell his doom. Usually more progressive candidates win in presidential years. There will be probably be twice as many voters, if not more.

All hail INCUMBENCY!!!!!!!!!!!

We agree!

Loving Senator Steve Glazer for the next 13 years!

You union sluts gave it your all, and the public decided that you're worthless and toxic. Steve is the People's Choice, as was evidenced by his election blowout victory.

This is Politics 99. He was never going to be allowed to fail since he always had the PEOPLE on his team. BART strikes are now on their way to the ash bin of history. Along with our dear Assemblywoman Cathy Baker, the district has been realigned to moderate-conservative. We who live in the district are very happy, indeed.

Steve's victory is your loss, and we will continue to remind you union sluts of that fact. Next up, we take out Dick Valley in the next election and throw him on the scrap heap of history along with MITTbranti, Whorbett, Bitchchanan, Second Place Sue, Whortese, can't write anymore since the list of LOSERS is so, so long.

How sweet it is for THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE WINNERS!!!

Both Glazer and Baker will lose in 2016 when the voter turnout will be more than twice as high. You are never the people's choice with a 23% voter turnout. Bye, Bye corporate sluts!

The " People's Choice"? We'll see in 2016. He just took a walk, instead of voting on a bill last week that would have raised the minimum wage to $13 an hour by 2017. So, he refused to take a stand on one of his first contentious issues. What a coward!

All hail INCUMBENCY!!!!!!!!!!!

We agree!

Loving Senator Steve Glazer for the next 13 years!

You union sluts gave it your all, and the public decided that you're worthless and toxic. Steve is the People's Choice, as was evidenced by his election blowout victory.

This is Politics 99. He was never going to be allowed to fail since he always had the PEOPLE on his team. BART strikes are now on their way to the ash bin of history. Along with our dear Assemblywoman Cathy Baker, the district has been realigned to moderate-conservative. We who live in the district are very happy, indeed.

Steve's victory is your loss, and we will continue to remind you union sluts of that fact. Next up, we take out Dick Valley in the next election and throw him on the scrap heap of history along with MITTbranti, Whorbett, Bitchchanan, Second Place Sue, Whortese, can't write anymore since the list of LOSERS is so, so long.

How sweet it is for THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE WINNERS!!!

What has been pointed out so far is that Glazer and Baker were almost totally funded by anti-consumer groups. The middle and lower class lost when they won. My family doesn't belong to a union, wish we did, but I agree that 2016 will bring out more anti-Glazer and anti-Baker voters. Usually more progressive candidates win in presidential years. Those voters in 2016 will represent the people, not the small number that turn out in special elections.

So happy that the district has realigned to moderate-conservative, which best reflects our values. We don't need any ultra-liberal skank union sluts out this way. If they're dumb enough to thrust recycled has-beens on us in the next election, we'll be only too happy to send them right back to the scrap heap of history.

Good, old-fashioned values are the best. So lucky to have the Dynamic Duo: Senator Steve and Assemblywoman Cathy. We are so blessed!

Labor has never done well in special elections with low voter turnout. Both in 2012 and 2014 General elections Labor candidates were successful well over 90% of the time in Bay Area races. I'm pretty happy with those type of percentages.

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