Tuesday, June 7, 2016

EBCampaign: June Primary LIVEblog


Skinner with commanding lead over Swanson
Nancy Skinner's large war chest apparently went to good use over the past few months. With 11 percent of precincts reporting, Skinner leads Swanson by a whopping 21 points. The race, viewed as strong November race between two well-known progressives, may be looked at with a different lens this fall. Swanson, meanwhile, is nearly assured of a place on the November ballot. His 28 percent tops Katherine Welch and Rich Kinney, who are both at around 11 percent.

Baker's almost dozen
The only Republican in legislature hailing from the East Bay is leading the Democrat Cheryl Cook-Kallio by almost 12 points with just 13 percent of precincts reporting. The result is something the Democrat backed by Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon might take. As it stands, it will put Cook-Kallio in position to make a run at Baker in November. Democrats think they can retake the seat from Baker.

Miley routing Parker early
Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley won nearly 60 percent of early vote-by-mail ballots. He leads Bryan Parker by 20 points with more than one-third of precincts reporting. The large early spread likely means defeat for Parker's upstart campaign, uncertainty for his future political prospects.

Honda leads by the skin of his teeth
Rep. Mike Honda is in a great deal of trouble. He leads Ro Khanna by just one percent with 7 percent of precincts reporting. Those returns are primarily vote-by-mail tallies. Khanna leads Honda by one percent in the smaller Alameda County portion of the district in Fremont.

6PM - By the numbers in CA-17
Two June's ago, Rep. Mike Honda beat Ro Khanna by 20 points. Khanna, remember, started the race, by one early, at around 3 percent. He later closed the gap to less than 4 points in November.

The calculus and perception is different in the this primary. Honda will win the primary, that's almost a certainty. Here's the prevailing wisdom about what the spread will mean for November:

Honda topping the six-person race with 50 percent or more of the vote, means the race is effectively over for Khanna. But, that's not likely. It didn't even happen in June 2014 when Honda received 48 percent.

Rule of thumb here, though, says the closer to 40 percent Honda comes, the more likely he's facing a very difficult general election. In terms of the all-important spread between Honda and Khanna. Fifteen points seems like a good starting point for Honda. However, when you start getting closer to a 10 percent spread or below, the more Honda sweats.

A thinner point spread doesn't seem likely if you taken into account the lack of desperation coming from Honda's campaign. They're cool as a cucumber right now and, to a certain extent, so is Khanna.

4PM - Living on a Prayer in CA-17
Ro Khanna made good on pledge four years ago to donate $1,000 to an event celebrating birth of Jesus this week and now, Republican Peter Kuo, one of his fellow challengers to Rep. Mike Honda posted this campaign-specific prayer on Facebook:

Heavenly Father, thank You for all You have done for me. I am truly grateful for all the incredible people I have met in this campaign. I know I have done my best to bring an optimistic and positive message to people of CD17.
Does not matter what happens tomorrow, I know Your plan for each and everyone of us, is perfect. 
I also want to pray for my fellow candidates that their voters will choose the right leaders in their communities. 
Let Your will be done. 
In Your precious son Jesus's name I pray, 
Kuo is in a likely battle with fellow Republican Ron Cohen for third place in tonight's primary.

2PM - Vote-By-Mail Numbers
There 834,139 registered voters in Alameda County. Of those 497,796 are permanent vote-by-mail voters, roughly 60 percent.

Through Tuesday morning, 26 percent of those ballots been returned to the Alameda County Registrar of Voters.

The return rate may seem low, especially with talk of historic numbers of people on the voter rolls. Some could be on the mail, others could be dropped off today at the polls.

11AM - Alameda County Board of Supervisors 4th District
Below is the Alameda County district borders. The contested 4th District represented by Supervisor Nate Miley covers East Oakland through Castro Valley to Pleasanton. Keep an eye on Pleasanton, located on the map just south of the 580 Freeway. It's the campaign's battleground region and could decide this close race. Overall, Miley should do well in Oakland, but Castro Valley could suddenly be a problem for him. Reports from Castro Valley suggest Miley didn't conduct much Get Out the Vote there. This only makes Pleasanton increasingly important. Pleasanton is also the city that knows Miley the least in the 4th District. It only became under Miley's jurisdiction since redistricting in 2011.

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10:30AM - Oakland precincts and beyond
Confusion always reigns at the polls. Volunteers are quickly trained and the occasional crush of impatient voters makes everything worse.

Oakland Magazine news editor Robert Gammon and others reported some poll workers at precincts in Oakland were uninformed about the ability of unaffiliated voters to request Democratic ballots on Election Day. If the problem is widespread, it could somewhat lower Bernie Sanders' tally, since independents this election season have tended to side with Sanders.

10AM - Aeolian Yacht Club, Alameda
Eighteen Assembly District Member Rob Bonta cast his ballot this morning. Of course, he voted for himself, he said. Bonta is running against Republican Roseann Slonsky-Breault today and in the fall since they are the only candidates in this top two primary.

Bonta also participated in this exit poll. The questions might surprise you, as will the answers


Effectively a tie in the primary...means Honda loses in November by at least 5%... 53/48
No way Honda picks up the majority of the votes of the others. He tried to paint Ro as less "main stream progressive" and now will reap what the sowed. Republicans and independents will vote for Ro, 2 to 1 over Honda.

Poor Honda will have to grind out Sept and Nov knowing his chances are nil.
Who will invest $ into that doomed effort?
Could end up a 10% margin come November. 55/45

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