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Tuesday, October 11, 2016

New polling suggests a nailbiter in Honda-Khanna rematch

CONGRESS | 17TH DISTRICT |
ELECTION 2016 |
An independent poll released Monday predicts the contentious rematch between Rep. Mike Honda and Ro Khanna is a tossup with less than a month before Election Day.

A SurveyUSA-KPIX poll shows Khanna with 38 percent of those survey, followed by Honda at 37 percent. More than a quarter of respondents--26 percent--indicated they are undecided. The results are well within the survey's +/-4.3 percent margin of error and based on 650 registered voters polled Oct. 4-7.

The survey is the first snapshot of how voters may be reacting to a lawsuit filed by the Honda campaign Sept. 22 alleging Khanna and his campaign manager illegally accessed confidential donor information.

Based on the polling, news of the lawsuit may or may not have tightened up an already close race, but it certainly has not hurt the Honda campaign. Khanna topped Honda in the June primary by less than two percentage points.

Nearly across the board, Monday's survey shows both candidates are neck-and-neck in nearly every crosstab, especially gender and race. However, the poll shows two large disparities--one surprising and one reinforcing a long-standing strength.

According to the survey, Honda holds a 12-point advantage over Khanna among young voters. Those between 18 and 34-years-old favored Honda 35-23. However the subset also has by far the largest percentage of undecided voters at 42.

The movement of young people toward Honda could be significant in light of a massive number of newly registered voters in recent weeks. Young voters tend to favor progressive-leaning candidates.

If so, Honda is going to need all the help he can get since the survey shows Khanna holding a strong advantage among independent and Republican voters. Khanna leads Honda among all Republicans, 47-25. and among all independents, 46-31. Meanwhile, all Democrats favor Honda, 47-32.

3 comments:

  1. " any outcome is possible when votes are counted in 30 days, given that 26% of likely voters today tell SurveyUSA they are undecided at this hour, and especially given historic turbulence at the top of the ticket in the race for President. "

    Trump to the rescue!

    ReplyDelete
  2. By MW:

    When deciding whether to vote for Candidate A or instead Candidate B, usually I do not pay much attention to endorsements from other politicians in deciding whether I should back A or instead B.

    However if Babs Cocker Spaniel is backing one of them, I might seriously consider making an exception and instead strongly lean toward the candidate she is not backing.

    And the leadership of the Demagogue Party does seem to becoming the cabal of entrenched extreme senility.

    First we had Pete Stark hanging around virtually forever, and long after he had totally lost his marbles.

    And then we had Nancy Pelousy's
    comment "You can read it after we pass it."

    Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been showing signs of extreme senility for at least several years. (But we should not be too hard on Ginsburg, since what she lacks in intelligence she more than makes up for in alcoholism.)

    And Mike Honda is almost certainly very senile.

    ReplyDelete
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