CONGRESS | 17TH DISTRICT |
ELECTION 2016 |
An independent poll released Monday predicts the contentious rematch between Rep. Mike Honda and Ro Khanna is a tossup with less than a month before Election Day.
A SurveyUSA-KPIX poll shows Khanna with 38 percent of those survey, followed by Honda at 37 percent. More than a quarter of respondents--26 percent--indicated they are undecided. The results are well within the survey's +/-4.3 percent margin of error and based on 650 registered voters polled Oct. 4-7.
The survey is the first snapshot of how voters may be reacting to a lawsuit filed by the Honda campaign Sept. 22 alleging Khanna and his campaign manager illegally accessed confidential donor information.
Based on the polling, news of the lawsuit may or may not have tightened up an already close race, but it certainly has not hurt the Honda campaign. Khanna topped Honda in the June primary by less than two percentage points.
Nearly across the board, Monday's survey shows both candidates are neck-and-neck in nearly every crosstab, especially gender and race. However, the poll shows two large disparities--one surprising and one reinforcing a long-standing strength.
According to the survey, Honda holds a 12-point advantage over Khanna among young voters. Those between 18 and 34-years-old favored Honda 35-23. However the subset also has by far the largest percentage of undecided voters at 42.
The movement of young people toward Honda could be significant in light of a massive number of newly registered voters in recent weeks. Young voters tend to favor progressive-leaning candidates.
If so, Honda is going to need all the help he can get since the survey shows Khanna holding a strong advantage among independent and Republican voters. Khanna leads Honda among all Republicans, 47-25. and among all independents, 46-31. Meanwhile, all Democrats favor Honda, 47-32.